Following on from the previous post assessing the contenders for the women’s singles, we now look at the men’s competition and the form of the leading players over the first two rounds.
Rafa Nadal – seeded 2 – Odds: 4/11 favourite
What can we possibly say – Nadal is the overwhelming favourite for the title in a competition he has dominated since 2005. Last year’s surprise defeat to Robin Soderling showed the first sign of Rafa actually being human on a clay court, but he had been struggling with injuries going in to the tournament.
A fully-fit Nadal will always dominate the French Open and as long as he stays injury free this year, he should win again. However, Nadal being fully-fit is not a given and he has struggled with injuries lately. His knees are, at the tender age of 23, already creaking and the sheer amount of running he does during a match only adds to this weakness in an otherwise impenetrable armour.
The draw suggests he will have to beat two out of Verdasco, Ferrer and Djokovic, which should be some of the most exciting games of the tournament. But if Nadal is playing at 80% or above, nobody can touch him.
Roger Federer – Seeded 1st – Odds: 3/1
French sports journal L’Equipe recently named Nadal as the best clay courter of all time, with Federer at number 7. Interestingly, since 2004 Nadal is the only man to beat the Swiss star at the French Open. Federer’s title of ‘greatest of all time’ would be indisputable were it not for the man from Mallorca.
Should anything happen to Rafa along the way, Federer will become the clear favourite and the odds suggest a final between the top two players in the world is far and away the most likely outcome.
Federer often appears to adjust his game to the level of his opponent, meaning he looks disinterested in the early rounds before coming to life in the second week. The draw points to tricky encounters with Gael Monfils in the last 16 and Soderling in the quarters, but there is no doubt Federer is in the easier half of the draw.
Novak Djokovic – Seeded 3 – Odds: 20/1
The popular Serb is not a natural clay court player, but is far from uncomfortable on the surface. He is a steady performer at the French but has never looked likely to break the dominance of the top 2.
A semi-final match-up with Nadal looks to be the most realistic outcome this year, although a last 16 tie with Juan Carlos Ferrero could be a long battle and a potential quarter-final with David Ferrer could go either way.
Robin Soderling – Seeded 5th – Odds: 28/1
Having stunned the world with his win over Nadal last year, Soderling proved it was no fluke by going all the way to the final. He followed it up with a good season and worked his way up to number five in the world.
If his serve is going well, the giant Swede could be a tricky opponent for anyone, despite eventually running out of steam against Federer in last year’s final. A rematch between the two is scheduled for the quarter-finals, which is likely to spell the end of Soderling’s campaign.
Andy Murray – Seeded 4th – Odds: 20/1
Murray’s odds are as low as 20/1 with some bookies, which seems like a very poor deal on the face of it. Realistically, the British no.1 will be satisfied by getting to the 2nd week at Roland Garros, with the red dust not exactly his favourite surface.
It all depends on the tactics the moody Scotsman employs; too defensive and he’ll be on an early flight home, a bit more attacking and he could go as far as the semis. His quarter doesn’t have too many dangerous players floating around, with Baghdatis his main obstacle to an appearance in the 2nd week. If he goes as far as the quarters, his likely opponent is Jo-Wilfred Tsonga – which is by no means an impossible task for Murray.
His odds vary from 20/1 to 50/1 depending on the bookmaker, which backs up the view that on his game, Murray could go as far as the semi-finals, but equally he could lose to Chela tonight and be home tomorrow.
Best of the rest:
David Ferrer (seeded 5th, odds: 33/1) and Fernando Verdasco (seeded 7th, odds: 33/1) are both exceptional clay court players who have had to live in the shadows of their illustrious compatriot Nadal. Either of these players could cause an upset along the way but both are likely to come unstuck as soon as they face Rafa.
Frenchmen Jo-Wilfred Tsonga (seeded 8th, odds: 66/1) and Gael Monfils (seeded 13th, odds: 66/1) will slide their way around the Roland Garros courts, providing some great entertainment along the way. Both men are explosive at their best and are the only two players on the tour who can slide equally well on either foot, meaning they are rarely out of position or off balance. For all their respective talents, neither player has the consistency to give the crowd the home winner they crave.
Surely only injury can prevent Nadal from winning a 5th title in 6 years? The overwhelming favourite will take some stopping and he looks unlikely to be stopped this year. Realistically, Federer is the only man with the tools for the job, but even he will struggle if Nadal is fit.
For an outside bet, Tsonga is as far out as 125/1 with some bookmakers. He has a comparatively easy run to the semis, where he could face Federer. If his power and athleticism can take him that far, things could get very interesting.